Macworld 2009 Predictions

Macworld 2009 Predictions

With Macworld 2009 about a week away, it’s time for me time throw my predictions in the ring. I won’t be attending this Macworld Expo (my last Macworld was 2000, when Mac OS X was introduced and shown for the first time), as I’m more of a WWDC guy. Still, like everybody else, I follow the day’s announcements with great interest.

Obviously, Macworld 2009 looks to be a scaled back affair. First, we have Phil Schiller delivering the keynote instead of Steve Jobs. You can draw whatever conclusions you want about that, but the one conclusion I think you have to reach is that there won’t be any “major” new products announced. By major, I mean something that isn’t an iteration of a previous product. So what does that leave? Well, here’s my predictions.

Mac mini

Seems pretty obvious. The mini is in desperate need of a refresh, internally and externally. There are rumors of the Mac mini getting an option to lose the optical drive and add a second hard drive. It could happen. I think the most likely improvement we will see is the ability to add ram and access the hard drive, like in the Macbooks/Macbook Pros. This upgrade alone would make the mini much more appealing to those who feel the need to “hotrod” their mini the moment it leaves the box.

iMac

The iMac is also due for a refresh. I think the case and form factor will remain the same. However, with quad core chips now readily available from Intel, it seems quite likely we will see the iMac go quad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the iMac adopt the same chipset that the Macbook Pro gained back in October either. A quad core 3ghz iMac with an Nvidia GeForce 9600M GT would be one screamer of a machine.

Snow Leopard

I believe we will get a brief mention of Snow Leopard, though I’m not sure we will see a demonstration. After all, most of Snow Leopard’s appeal is in the under-the-hood improvements, and those aren’t the kind of things that tend to wow people during keynotes. I don’t think we’ll get a release date, apart from a “spring” or “summer” release.

iLife

It’s been a good while since iLife ’08 appeared, so this seems like a given. Macworld and iLife releases we synonymous for years until 2007/2008. The last iLife upgrade was nearly 18 months ago, so there’s been a longer than normal upgrade cycle for the developers to polish the product. Apart from upgrades to the individual apps, I have no clue what might be added to the iLife suite. But I can say with certainty that iMovie needs some serious improvements over the ’08 version.

iWork

The iWork ’08 trio of prosumer business apps should probably see a upgrade at or around Macworld. Apart from upgrades to Pages, Keynote and Numbers, I’m hoping we will see a fourth app added to the mix. Something for composition/layout, along the lines of MacDraw, or a simple version of Photoshop. Treading in this app space is dangerous for Apple, as it risks the Adobe/Apple relationship, so I don’t expect it to happen. But I’d love to be wrong.

Mac Pro

Desperately in need of an upgrade. The Mac Pro seems to be the product that Apple is least interested in at the moment. With it’s entry level price at $2799, the Mac Pro is positioned solely for those who need power and have money to burn. In today’s economy, those people might be fewer and further between. My bet is many of them would turn to a quad core iMac if it existed. Some of them might be inclined to jump to Wintel, with Wintel systems comparable to the Mac Pro running nearly 1/3 to 1/2 the price.

Either way, the Mac Pro really needs to be reevaluated by Apple. There was once a time when Apple’s pro offerings started at $1499. Apple would be wise to tune the Mac Pro lineup to allow for a sub $2000 offering in today’s economy. Then again, Apple might be neglecting the Mac Pro because it feels the tower form factor is obsolete and not worthy of further investment. Bottom line, the Mac Pro needs an upgrade, but I doubt it will see one at Macworld, since the product seems less positioned to consumers than in years past.

MobileMe

As a MobileMe subscriber, I’m hoping for some serious upgrades. The last couple of OS upgrades have fixed many of the MobileMe syncing issues, thankfully. Feature wise, MobileMe is still having to compete with a raft of free services that are superior. The best exmaple is DropBox. DropBox is so much more elegant than MobileMe’s iDisk. It’s fast, simple, and just works. iDisk, on the other hand, is slow, a pain to setup, and a pain to use. If I were Apple, I’d just buy Dropbox and make it the new iDisk. The Dropbox people really seem to know what they are doing, where the iDisk people do not.

Large iPod Touch/Mac Tablet

I doubt this will come to fruition. And, if it does, I don’t think it will be Phil Schiller who introduces it. Apple looks like they had some serious iPod Touch sales this holiday season. With a $399 32GB iPod touch, and a Mac mini at $599, there is a very small window for a product that sits between the iPod Touch 32GB and the mini. Once the prices for the iPod Touch drop a bit to the $199/$249/$299 mark, there might be room for a $399 iPod Tablet. But I doubt that will happen before fall 2009. Write this rumor off as premature.

iPhone nano

I just don’t see this happening. By shrinking the iPhone form factor, you ruin the experience. You could argue that the iPhone nano might not use the same iPhone OS we currently know, but I think that’s just silly. The iPhone’s biggest appeal now is the ecosystem that has been erected around it. Changing the form factor and removing that ecosystem just seems dumb.

When you are talking about a touch device, smaller isn’t necessarily better.

As for the $99 price point of the rumored iPhone nano. Apple seems to be in pretty good shape with iPhone component costs that if it wanted to release a $99 iPhone, it could probably figure out how to do it. Right now, they don’t see the need to do this. But come fall 2009, when the effects of a troubled economy might be weighing down iPhone sales, it might make sense. Therefore, I don’t see the iPhone dropping to $99 before the next version is released, which would probably been July-September 2009.

Category: Apple,Rumor